Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 24.567369 26.067108 27.662664 29.495532 31.554309 33.809176 36.484708
2025-12-07 22.154866 24.179862 26.448402 29.209329 32.523349 36.434369 41.496864
2025-12-14 20.209207 22.392957 24.909401 28.074193 32.025380 36.910208 43.607372
2025-12-21 19.293538 21.672834 24.486348 28.135470 32.868236 38.999199 47.930099
2025-12-28 18.667219 21.220541 24.309294 28.428300 33.962841 41.462360 53.077154
2026-01-04 17.762648 20.354572 23.538770 27.867447 33.831227 42.182187 55.733765
2026-01-11 17.418694 20.155325 23.581354 28.351563 35.136573 45.055527 62.214114
2026-01-18 17.014523 19.848285 23.452835 28.575768 36.069529 47.460990 68.403851
2026-01-25 16.394456 19.228022 22.870719 28.120154 35.948302 48.180493 71.698035
2026-02-01 15.813684 18.631694 22.287286 27.618638 35.703903 48.652053 74.594172
2026-02-08 15.069994 17.792831 21.339744 26.541440 34.492701 47.376114 73.712979
2026-02-15 14.804956 17.577548 21.229630 26.666044 35.156276 49.364265 80.117448
2026-02-22 14.373499 17.180937 20.929382 26.613071 35.732524 51.645075 88.881204
2026-03-01 13.895605 16.708807 20.510351 26.370872 36.009835 53.507140 97.786274
2026-03-08 13.245216 15.969604 19.671252 25.421253 34.987845 52.682853 99.238044
2026-03-15 12.949660 15.704161 19.491247 25.472594 35.681654 55.388472 112.289613
2026-03-22 12.734426 15.538114 19.441570 25.718115 36.736210 59.063144 131.355148
2026-03-29 12.335118 15.097317 18.967477 25.247602 36.433712 59.695844 140.113621
2026-04-05 12.201306 15.024988 19.031586 25.653809 37.806293 64.497869 171.717130
2026-04-12 12.018842 14.874592 18.969148 25.841626 38.778541 68.605531 207.755770
2026-04-19 11.704489 14.522893 18.585702 25.459755 38.574990 69.621626 227.993659
2026-04-26 11.398163 14.173474 18.192363 25.038482 38.251871 70.259343 247.725159
2026-05-03 10.987631 13.662195 17.534723 24.130320 36.856248 67.663703 238.078439